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Trend Analysis

A technique that applies mathematical models to past performance data to predict likely future results.

Key Points

  • Looks at historical data over time to spot patterns and direction of change.
  • Uses statistical methods (e.g., regression, moving averages) to project future performance.
  • Helps forecast cost, schedule, quality, and risk metrics and supports proactive decisions.
  • Relies on consistent, accurate data and periodic review to confirm assumptions remain valid.

Example

A project manager tracks monthly CPI and SPI and fits a trendline to the last six months of data to forecast the final cost and completion date. Seeing CPI trending downward, the PM implements cost controls and negotiates scope adjustments to prevent overruns.

PMP Example Question

A PM uses a regression line on the last eight months of CPI data to predict the projects final cost. Which technique is the PM using?

  1. Parametric estimating
  2. Trend analysis
  3. Benchmarking
  4. Root cause analysis

Correct Answer: B — Trend analysis

Explanation: Trend analysis uses mathematical modeling of historical performance data (like CPI over time) to forecast future outcomes.

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