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Forecast

A prediction of future project conditions and events, developed from the information and knowledge available at the time it is produced.

Key Points

  • Based on current data, trends, assumptions, and known risks at the time of preparation.
  • Updated regularly as new performance information becomes available.
  • May be quantitative (e.g., EAC, ETC, finish date) or qualitative (narrative outlooks).
  • Accuracy depends on data quality and method; uncertainty remains and should be communicated.

Example

Midway through a construction project, the project manager reviews CPI and SPI and updates the forecast to show a 6% cost overrun and a two-week schedule delay if current trends continue.

PMP Example Question

During a monthly review, the project manager uses actual cost and CPI to compute a new estimate at completion (EAC). What is this activity an example of?

  1. Baseline control
  2. Forecasting
  3. Scope validation
  4. Qualitative risk analysis

Correct Answer: B — Forecasting: predicting future results using current information

Explanation: Recalculating EAC uses present performance data to estimate future cost outcomes, which is forecasting.

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