HKSM

A numeric forecast of the probable value or result of a variable, such as project cost, resource needs, effort, or schedule duration.

Key Points

• An estimate is a forecast, not a commitment, and carries uncertainty.
• Often expressed as a range with a confidence level and documented assumptions.
• Based on data and techniques such as expert judgment, analogous, parametric, bottom-up, or three-point estimating.
• Supports planning for budget, resources, schedule, and contingency reserves.

Example

The team estimates the testing phase will require 160 hours (+/- 15%), two testers, and a cost of $12,000, based on historical data and a three-point estimate.

PMP Example Question

Which statement best describes an estimate in project management?

1. A binding commitment to deliver within a fixed cost and time.
2. A quantitative prediction of the likely value of a variable used for planning.
3. A qualitative opinion recorded during lessons learned.
4. A formal change request to modify scope and budget.

Correct Answer: B — A quantitative prediction used for planning

Explanation: An estimate is a numeric forecast of a likely amount or outcome (e.g., cost, effort, duration) that informs planning and decision making, not a firm commitment.