HKSM

Rolling wave planning is a progressive elaboration technique where near-term work is planned in detail while future work stays at a higher level and is refined as information emerges. It helps teams manage uncertainty and improve estimate accuracy over time.

Key Points

• Plans near-term work in detail and keeps later work at a high level until it is closer in time.
• Applies progressive elaboration to balance flexibility with realistic estimates and schedules.
• Works well in predictive, agile, and hybrid approaches across many domains.
• Uses bottom-up estimating for near-term items and analogous or parametric estimating for later items.
• Converts planning packages or epics into detailed work packages or stories as the horizon moves forward.
• Requires a regular planning cadence and disciplined change control to keep baselines current.

When to Use

• Projects with evolving requirements, emerging technology, or incomplete information.
• Long-duration initiatives where early detailed planning would create rework.
• Complex efforts with many dependencies that become clearer over time.
• Agile or hybrid environments that rely on backlog refinement and iteration planning.
• Early phases of a project when only a high-level scope is defined.

How to Estimate

Adopt a rolling horizon and tailor estimating techniques to the level of certainty.

• Set the planning window (e.g., next 2-8 weeks, next phase, or next quarter) based on volatility and lead times.
• Decompose near-term scope into activities, work packages, or user stories and estimate bottom-up (effort, duration, cost).
• Keep later scope as planning packages, features, or milestones and estimate using analogous or parametric techniques with ranges.
• Establish a regular replanning cadence (e.g., monthly or per iteration) to refine scope, estimates, and schedules.
• Identify long-lead items early and estimate/order them even if their work occurs later.
• Document assumptions, dependencies, and risks that influence estimates and update them as new information appears.

Inputs Needed

• Product vision, roadmap, or project scope statement.
• Initial WBS or backlog with epics/features and known constraints.
• Historical data, reference class data, and organizational estimating assets.
• Team capacity, velocity, resource calendars, and availability.
• Risk register and assumption log.
• Governance and change control policies for updating baselines.

Outputs Produced

• Detailed near-term schedule and a high-level roadmap for later work.
• Refined WBS/backlog where planning packages are converted into work packages or stories.
• Activity and resource estimates with ranges, confidence levels, and documented assumptions.
• Updated release plans, milestones, and dependencies.
• Approved baseline updates (as required) and refreshed risk and assumption logs.

Assumptions

• Near-term scope is understood well enough for reliable bottom-up estimates.
• Stakeholders accept iterative detailing and periodic re-estimation.
• Data for analogous or parametric estimating is available and credible.
• Dependencies and lead times can be identified early to inform planning.
• Governance supports controlled changes as plans are refined.

Example

A 12-month initiative defines a high-level roadmap with quarterly milestones. The team plans the first 6 weeks in detail, estimating tasks bottom-up and scheduling resources. Later quarters remain as planning packages with analogous estimates. Each month, the team refines the next window, breaks planning packages into work packages, adjusts dependencies, and updates the schedule and risks. Long-lead procurements are identified early and placed to avoid delaying later work.

Pitfalls

• Over-detailing distant work, causing waste and frequent rework.
• Under-detailing near-term tasks, leading to missed dependencies and surprises.
• Skipping a regular planning cadence, resulting in outdated plans and estimates.
• Ignoring long-lead items or regulatory timelines until it is too late.
• Not capturing assumptions and rationale, making variances hard to explain.
• Letting scope creep enter during refinement without proper change control.

PMP Example Question

A 10-month project plans the next two iterations in detail and keeps later work as high-level epics with rough estimates that are refined monthly. What technique is the team using?

1. Fast tracking.
2. Rolling wave planning.
3. Delphi technique.
4. Precedence diagramming method.

Correct Answer: B — Rolling wave planning.

Explanation: Rolling wave planning details near-term work while leaving future work at a higher level to be elaborated as information becomes available. The other options describe different techniques.