HKSM

Historical information consists of documented data and records from previous projects or phases that inform current and future work. It includes past estimates, actual performance, risks, issues, changes, and lessons that support planning, estimating, and decision-making.

Key Points

• Historical information is part of organizational process assets and is typically stored in a PMIS or knowledge repository.
• It contains both quantitative data (cost, schedule, quality metrics) and qualitative insights (risks, issues, decisions, lessons learned).
• It supports planning, estimating, risk management, procurement strategies, and stakeholder engagement across the life cycle.
• Always check contextual fit such as scope, complexity, delivery approach, technology, and organizational environment before reuse.
• Normalize and adjust data for scale, inflation, currency, geography, and timing; record assumptions and conversions.
• Follow governance for confidentiality, integrity, version control, and proper citation of sources.

Purpose

Use historical information to reduce uncertainty, avoid repeating mistakes, and leverage proven practices. It helps teams make realistic plans, set baselines, forecast outcomes, and justify decisions with evidence.

Source & Ownership

• Primary sources include prior project files: charters, business cases, baselines, WBS dictionaries, estimates, schedules, performance reports, risk and issue logs, change logs, test results, contracts, and supplier performance records.
• Ownership typically rests with the organization or PMO; the project team uses the data and contributes new records upon project closure.
• Access and retention are governed by organizational policies, including information security and records management.
• Repositories should be curated and version-controlled to ensure reliability and traceability.

How to Use

1. Define the decision or estimate you need to make (e.g., cost, duration, risk exposure).
2. Search the repository for comparable projects or components with similar scope, size, complexity, and context.
3. Assess comparability and note differences; exclude poor matches to avoid bias.
4. Normalize the data (scale, inflation, location, calendar) and triangulate with expert judgment and current constraints.
5. Document assumptions, sources, and adjustments; record ranges and confidence levels.
6. Incorporate results into plans and baselines, and update the repository with actuals and lessons as the project progresses.

Example Usage

• Estimating: Apply average cost per deliverable from similar projects, adjusted for inflation and scope.
• Scheduling: Use historical cycle time or team throughput to forecast iteration or phase duration.
• Risk management: Seed the risk register with common historical risks and effective responses.
• Procurement: Select contract type based on past supplier performance and change patterns.
• Stakeholders: Plan communications using historical preferences and engagement outcomes for similar stakeholder groups.

Caveats

• Outdated or poor-quality data can mislead; verify source credibility and data completeness.
• Context mismatch (technology, regulations, delivery approach) reduces applicability; avoid false analogies.
• Beware of survivor bias and cherry-picking; consider a representative sample.
• Do not treat historical information as a rule; combine it with expert judgment and current EEFs.
• Respect confidentiality and legal restrictions, especially with vendor or personnel data.
• Record your adjustments and assumptions to maintain transparency and auditability.

PMP Example Question

During planning, the team lacks reliable data to estimate testing effort for a new project. What should the project manager do first?

1. Review historical information and lessons learned from similar projects in the organizational repository.
2. Ask the sponsor to increase the budget contingency by 10%.
3. Create a new estimating template based on the team's preferences.
4. Start executing to gather real data before planning.

Correct Answer: A — Review historical information and lessons learned from similar projects in the organizational repository.

Explanation: Historical information provides evidence-based inputs for estimates. It should be consulted before adjusting budgets, inventing templates, or proceeding without a plan.